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Harvey Sapolsky
Iraq: The Mistake Was Staying
With tens of thousands dead, it is easy to have regrets when reflecting back on the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The real policy mistake was staying there beyond the destruction of Saddam Hussein’s regime.
The Petraeus Scandal
David Petraeus was thought to be a possible Republican US presidential or vice presidential candidate. This affair has ruined such opportunities, but it will not stop him from being part of the discussion of future national security issues.
No Turkish Syrian War
Turkey will not be an instrument by which the Assad regime is deposed. It will neither directly attack the Assad government nor be the leader of an intervening coalition. If there is intervention, it will have to be an American initiative.
BAE/EADS Merger is a Mistake
BAE Systems is trying to tie up with Airbus’ parent, EADS, to create the world’s largest aerospace company. This merger may yield several problems for the airliner and defence industries.
An Attack on Iran: Four ‘No Ways’ and One ‘Maybe’
The US is broke, the military is focused on new horizons, and international condemnation on an Israeli preventive action will be overwhelming for the US. Hence, short of an Iranian act of aggression, war is unlikely.
Obama is Overpromising the Wrong Things
Fixing America’s debt problem, repairing its infrastructure, and re-training the workforce for a modern economy would prove popular. If only someone would make those promises.
No Brakes
As with America’s war in Afghanistan, there now can be wars without end thanks to a professional military, new technology, and a changing politics of party competition.
The Shift to the Pacific
America will find more ways to project more power from a distance and less reasons to be constantly on scene. It is a slow walk home, not a major change.