Iran is becoming the proverbial elephant in the room. The idea of a religious Armageddon lying around the corner is unusual in Twenty-First Century statecraft, and few national leaders vocalize such beliefs. Iran’s President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei are stark exceptions. Prudence dictates not discounting the possibility that Ahmadinejad and his cohorts do believe their rhetoric. Vigilance is necessary.
The ongoing people’s uprisings in the Arab countries against autocratic rulers have provided Iran with both challenges and opportunities in the Middle East and beyond. Will these momentous events enhance Iran’s foreign policy opportunities, or will they ultimately lead to further isolation and strategic loneliness for Iran?
Revolutionary change is hard to understand, but it is even harder to predict. Whatever transpires in Libya, political tectonic waves are shifting. In the coming years, Cairo will rediscover its stature and voice; the Arab world’s sectarian cold war will move into a dangerous period; and aspirant democrats will search for models of their own, first Turkey, but perhaps eventually, Egypt.
Recent mutterings in the western corridors of power for an intervention in Libya are now being translated into a potential reality. Although the Iranian opposition symbolically attempts to distant itself from the outside, the regime knows that a military intervention in Libya could have serious implications for the regime in Tehran.
For many people, February 14 is about exchanging red roses and expressing their sentiments to their loved ones. However, this year Valentine’s Day coincided with mass political activism in Iran, which reinvigorated the Green Movement. The regime has no interest in compromise and political reconciliation. Hence, they will increasingly rely on the politics of the iron fist to maintain power.
In 2002 Iran was added to the neoconservative-designed ‘Axis of Evil’ and thus declared ripe for US military intervention. Wars are often kicked off accidentally. Indeed, that an incident in the heavily militarised Persian Gulf could be utilised as a casus belli by war profiteers who have overcome obstacles on the political scene is certainly not a matter of sheer fantasy. Urgent action is therefore required to lower the temperatures.
The consequences of Wikileaks lie not in the information it provides to policymakers, but in the new perspective it may grant the general population. By bringing new evidence into public discourse, the document leak may change the public view of Iran policy, and thus policies themselves as the Arab States, America and its NATO allies react
Mosaddeq’s preoccupation with the nationalization of Iran’s oil sector derived from his belief that such a venture, once realized, could bring economic prosperity, national autonomy and political sovereignty in its wake. The loss of Abadan Oil Refinery dealt Britain’s prestige a stinging blow at a time when it was struggling to adapt itself to the disintegration of empire and come to terms with the ascendance of the US
Three recent publications provide a fresh perspective of the developments which resulted in the decline of British influence in the Gulf, and the subsequent rise of the US.
Nasrin Soutoudeh, one of Iran’s most prominent human rights and women’s rights activist went on a hunger strike for the second time on October 31st to protest her unlawful detention and ill treatment in Iran’s Evin Prison. Last week for the first time her two children, three and eleven years old visited her in prison. They found their mother in poor heath and so frail that she could not even hug them.
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