Less than a year following the break up of Sudan into two sovereign republics, it is ticking all the boxes of a bitter and nasty dissolution of marriage.
Conflict is not inevitable in South Sudan. All of the issues present in Jonglei can be addressed through enlightened government policies. While still young, the RSS may draw from lessons learned throughout the region.
In the months since South Sudan’s declaration of independence from Sudan, the international community’s gaze has regrettably shifted from ongoing instability in the two Sudans. As has become imminently clear in the short post-independence period, a path toward comprehensive conflict resolution within and between the two Sudans will necessitate a profound shift in policy priorities, approaches, and partnerships.
Doubt and bitterness prevail amongst many non-Southern Sudanese on the eve of independence, but history is not destiny. The question is no longer whether secession should have happened or not; it is how the marginalised people of North and South can finally get on with their lives, instead of being sucked into open wars and micro-conflicts.
Whilst Libya is no doubt important, it is but the tip of the iceberg. In the long run, timely and decisive action such as the international action in Libya will continue to be a recurrent but painful necessity. Yet, we will make most progress towards a world without mass atrocities by reducing the number of cases that become so acute and preventing crises from escalating to the point of imminent catastrophe.
In January 2011 the South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly for independence from Sudan. Over 98% of registered voters chose separation over unity. Much of the Western media has portrayed this vote as an indicator of a successful end to decades of conflict in the South. When South Sudan celebrates its independence, expected to take place in July 2011, the mood will indeed be jovial. But South Sudan is setting up to be a failed state.
There is an intense sense of Sisyphean angst concerning the challenges facing Southern Sudan. With a reasonably fertile land, a young population, and plentiful resources Southern Sudan has the raw materials to build a successful nation, but only if it receives the support it requires.
Terror in the west of Sudan is far from concluded. Following the celebration of an apparently successful referendum for South Sudan, we should not forget the deals the Obama administration was obliged to cut so that voting could take place as scheduled, and what further deals will be required going forward to ensure the secession vote is respected by the Khartoum regime.
In the words of one local human rights activist, the new North Sudan is going to be a very nasty country. This matters because of the company president Bashir keeps: he gave shelter to Osama bin Laden for five years in the 1990s, and he considers Iran’s Ahmadinejad, Hamas and Hizbollah to be his closest ideological and political friends, despite claiming to be an ally of America in the war on terror
There is some irony in the criticism of ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo for issuing his request for a warrant of arrest for Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad Al Bashir. The Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) was previously criticised for moving too slowly and for not targeting high levels of the government. How sensitive to a politics of consequence, then, should the Prosecutor be?
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