Iran’s Syria Gamble: Losing the War, Losing the Peace?

With the human toll of the civil war in Syria soaring dramatically on a daily basis and a perceived shift in the government strategy from restoring opposition-captured lands to destroying them [1], the role of Iran as the only Muslim state that staunchly supports the Damascus regime is drawing greater domestic and international attention. While China and particularly Russia are thwarting Western efforts at the UN Security Council to force or even facilitate the ouster of Bashar al-Assad and thus offering him diplomatic protection at the international level, Iran is widely believed to be sustaining the Syrian government on the ground [2] in its struggle to crush the by-now-militarized Sunni-dominated rebellion, supplying it with operational intelligence and advice, logistical help as well as military equipment. What the Islamic Republic (IRI) leaders perversely continue to neglect, however, is the growing likelihood of their Syria game turning into a perilous zero-sum gamble and the profound strategic repercussions this can entail for Tehran once the doomed regime of Assad totally collapses as the violent revolt against it intensifies and military defections increase [3].

Iranian policy towards the Syrian unrest has been characterized, ever since its outbreak in March 2011, by a two-pronged strategy based, in tune with the conflict’s changing nature, upon encouraging a negotiated solution on the one hand and ensuring by whatever means possible the survival of Assad regime as a vital element in the “axis of resistance” against Israel on the other [4]. The strategy originates primarily in the entrenched perception that “Syria’s security is Iran’s security,” as Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior Majlis member close to the political camp of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, synoptically enunciated during a high-profile meeting with Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on 26 August 2012 [5]. It also speaks broadly of Tehran’s long-standing attempts to project an ideological identity of itself as the spiritual and moral leader of the Muslim world, which it has been striving to mobilize against “global arrogance” and its “Zionist” embodiment in the Middle East. The dogged pursuit of this morally paradoxical and politically ambivalent policy line has, however, come at a high price particularly after peaceful demonstrations at the early stages of the uprising were radicalized into an armed insurgency against the government as a consequence of the latter’s embryonic resort to brute force to terminate them.

Now about 19 months into the revolt, which has so far left over 34000 Syrians dead and hundreds of thousands displaced [6], Tehran’s unswerving and apparently unconditional support for Damascus seems to have largely backfired. Not only has it failed to bolster Iranian national security and interests in the Middle East and beyond, but it has also undermined Iran’s regional position and deepened its international isolation. The policy has served well to alienate the Islamist government in Ankara, which had nearly become a useful partner for Tehran, particularly helping it to broker a deal with Western powers over its disputed nuclear venture. It has further antagonized Iran’s Sunni Arab rivals, stymied a meaningful resumption of diplomatic relations with post-revolutionary Egypt [7] and finally strained the limits of Iraq’s willingness to allow Tehran to wield power in the country – as it is reportedly making desperate use of Iraqi territory to assist the Syrian government [8]. Moreover and perhaps most significantly, the policy has played an underlying part in eliciting harsher sanctions by the West against the IRI’s controversial atomic programme [9], and is likely convincing leaders in the United States and Europe that the current Iranian leadership may not be trusted with the bomb, nor even perhaps with a “breakout capability.”

Yet, material security, as highlighted by Boroujerdi and a number of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders, does not definitely constitute the sole component of what is at stake for Iran in Syria and the consequences of its unmeasured approach to the crisis in the Arab nation. Tehran has also had its revolutionary image stained in the region by an unmistakable display of double standards vis-à-vis the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa and is rapidly losing what has been left of its popularity with certain segments of the Arab street including Palestinians [10], an affinity Iranian leaders have long invested upon and taken more costly pains over the past few years to build by showing radical opposition to Israel. Following gross and systematic abuses of human rights, including a number of massacres, organized use of violence against civilians and enforced abductions [11], mostly perpetrated by the militia and military forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad, it can now be safely argued that the tipping point of uprising has long passed in disfavour of the pre-Arab Spring status quo and there will be no return whatsoever of business as usual in Syria as Iran favours and strives to bring about. Iranian statesmen are tragically mistaken if they find themselves disposed to think otherwise [12].

The wishful belief in Assad’s Pyrrhic victory over the rebels, prevailing as it appears to be in many conservative decision-making quarters in Tehran, has never been more untenable with the already deepened Jihadization of conflict inside Syria and its meaningful accompaniment by a renewed Western endeavour to merge non-extremist opposition groups into an effective united front against the embattled regime [13]. Iranian leaders need accustom themselves to the bare reality that at any event their Alawite ally is destined to go.

To put it in a nutshell, Iran’s Syrian syndrome, so to speak, is unsettling and negating it materially and perceptually on the domestic, regional and international levels [14]. And eventually, if Syrians manage, in their quest for democracy and dignity, to find a way out of their current predicament and build a free future of their own, it will almost undoubtedly be one without Assad and his cohort [15], most probably rendering Iran the great loser both of the war now and of the peace then. Indeed, how to engage in the Syrian conflict is among many crucial matters the Islamic Republic should fundamentally rethink and devise reasonable policy responses to if it really aspires to stay strategically afloat in the region.

Maysam Behravesh is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Political Science at Lund University, Sweden, and an Editorial Assistant at e-IR.



[1]. Anne Barnard and Hwaida Saad, “Seized by Rebels, Town Is Crushed by Syrian Forces,” The New York Times, October 18, 2012, Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/world/middleeast/horrific-bombing-in-northern-syria-kills-dozens.html?ref=world&_r=1&pagewanted=all& (October 19, 2012).

[2]. Farnaz Fassihi, “Iran Said to Send Troops to Bolster Syria,” The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2012, Accessed at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444230504577615393756632230.html (August 27, 2012)

[3]. Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Mohammed Abbas, “Syrian Rebels Fire at, Miss Assad’s Palace,” Reuters, November 7, 2012, Accessed at http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/11/07/syria-damascus-bombs-idINDEE8A603020121107 (November 8, 2012); Jonathon Burch, “About 9,000 Refugees, 26 Officers Flee Syria to Turkey,” Reuters, November 9, 2012, Accessed at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/09/us-syria-crisis-turkey-defections-idUSBRE8A80KL20121109 (November 9, 2012).

[4]. “Iran, Syria Relations Main Axis of Resistance against Israel: Lawmaker,” Press TV, November 5, 2012, Accessed at http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/11/05/270563/iran-syria-ties-main-resistance-axis/ (November 7, 2012); CNN Wire Staff, “Iran: Syria Part of ‘Axis of Resistance,” Cable News Network (CNN), August 8, 2012, Accessed at http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/07/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html (August 9, 2012).

[5]. Oliver Holmes, “Assad’s Forces Accused of Massacre Near Syrian Capital,” Reuters, August 26, 2012, Accessed at http://news.yahoo.com/assads-forces-accused-massacre-near-syrian-capital-124944692.html (August 27, 2012).

[6]. For a regularly updated tally of casualties, see the home page of the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria at http://www.vdc-sy.org/.

[7]. Richard Spencer, “Morsi Tells Iran That Syria’s Assad Must Go,” The Telegraph, August 30, 2012, Accessed at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9509248/Morsi-tells-Iran-that-Syrias-Assad-must-go.html (August 30, 2012).

[8]. Michael R. Gordon, “U.S. Presses Iraq on Iranian Planes Thought to Carry Arms to Syria,” The New York Times, September 5, 2012, Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/world/middleeast/us-presses-iraq-on-iranian-planes-thought-to-carry-arms-to-syria.html?_r=0 (September 5, 2012).

[9]. Justyna Pawlak and Sebastian Moffett, “EU Tightens Iran Sanctions, Ashton Sees More Talks,” Reuters, October 15, 2012, Accessed at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-eu-iran-sanctions-westerwelle-idUSBRE89E0I920121015 (October 15, 2012); For the text of the statement issued by the Council of the European Union, see http://www.consilium.europa.eu//uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/132833.pdf

[10]. “Meshaal: Erdogan Is Not Only Turkey’s Leader; He Is Also a Leader of the Muslim World,” Sabah (Turkish daily), October 1, 2012, Accessed at http://english.sabah.com.tr/national/2012/10/01/meshaal-erdogan-is-not-only-turkeys-leader-he-is-also-the-leader-of-the-muslim-world (October 2, 2012); Ian Black and Harriet Sherwood, “Qatari Emir’s Visit to Gaza Is a Boost for Hamas,” The Guardian, October 23, 2012, Accessed at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/23/qatari-emir-welcome-gaza-visit (October 25, 2012).

[11]. Michael Peel, “Syrian Massacre Is Veiled in Silence,” Financial Times, October 9, 2012, Accessed at http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1dd947a2-10a3-11e2-a5f7-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz28vvjHApC (October 11, 2012); Tim Castle and Tessa Unsworth, “Syrian Army Systematically Killing Civilians: Amnesty,” Reuters, June 14, 2012, Accessed at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/14/us-syria-amnesty-idUSBRE85D08520120614 (July 20, 2012); “Syria Crisis: 28,000 Disappeared, Say Rights Groups,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), October 18, 2012, Accessed at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19986806 (November 3, 2012).

[12]. “Mo’aven-e Vezarat-e Khareje-ye Iran: Souriyeh az Bohran’e Amniyati Obour Kardeh [Iran Deputy Foreign Minister: Syria Left Security Crisis Behind],” BBC Persian Service, October 15, 2012, Accessed at http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2012/09/120925_l23_syria_iran_.shtml (October 15, 2012).

[13]. Regan Doherty and Rania El Gamal, “Syrian Opposition Debates Forming U.S.-backed Assembly,” Reuters, November 10, 2012, Accessed at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/10/us-syria-doha-talks-idUSBRE8A90C720121110 (November 10, 2012); Faisal Baatout, “SNC under pressure over Syria opposition plan,” Agence France-Presse (AFP), November 10, 2012, Accessed at http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i_c80ZGyhoCLKR9WlxcOZ7UaxJyA?docId=CNG.18fa42eee640092a698458ccdc1aebfc.a1 (November 10, 2012);  “Syria opposition: ‘New coalition agreed’ at Qatar talks,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), November 11, 2012, Accessed at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20285898 (November 11, 2012).

[14]. For a sign of domestic dissatisfaction with the Iranian government’s support for the Assad regime, see Saeed Kamali Dehghan, “Iran currency crisis sparks Tehran street clashes,” The Guardian, October 4, 2012, Accessed at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/03/iran-currency-crisis-tehran-clashes (October 4, 2012).

[15]. Mohammed al-Makki Ahmad, “SNC Opposes Role for Assad Officials In Transition,” Al-Monitor (Translated by Kamal Fayad from Al-Hayat), October 17, 2012, Accessed at http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/10/syria-opposition-head-no-place-for-assad-entourage-in-transitional-government.html?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4858#ixzz29g0sTFwA (October 25, 2012).

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