With contributions from many of the world’s most respected experts, this compendium draws attention to the points of contention highlighted by the Libyan intervention.
Without Western responsibility for the outcome of the intervention in Libya and without any transformative promise, Western powers were strengthened morally and politically through their actions, whereas in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, they were humbled and often humiliated.
The Arab Spring’s impact on the Global Jihad Movement is ironic. Al Qaeda, its associated groups and home-grown cells are no longer the agents of change. In the eyes of the people, this most powerful grouping of violent entities remains marginalized.
Events like the fall of Mubarak and the rise of the Islamic Renaissance Movement in Tunisian politics have led some observers to conclude that fundamentalism’s shadow will be cast over the Middle East. Simultaneously, as Tehran’s leaders trumpet their growing relationships with Islamist groups, it is feared that Iran will come out ahead in the region.
Many have heralded the Internet as a life-enhancing medium that promotes citizen empowerment beyond the borders of nation states. Whilst there has been much talk about the beneficiaries of this revolution, there has been something of a hesitance to name the casualties.
The most important aspect of Turkey’s potential to become a model for the rest of the region is her ability to uphold secularism while trying to become more democratic despite the fact that there is currently a conservative government ruling Turkey with its origins in Turkey’s Islamist tradition.
The death of Qaddafi is, naturally, a very public symbol that his reign of oppression is over and will not return, but this is not the end of the story for Libyans, the UN or NATO. The campaign to maintain peace between the various factions could prove to be more difficult than the defeat of Qaddafi’s forces.
Perhaps, looking back at the EU’s performance in the Libyan crisis in five years’ time, the best lesson to (re-) learn is that the EU is not good at hard security policy, but does a very decent job when the task is about dealing with the aftermath of conflict. Stable democracies cannot be built on the battlefield. They require a whole different set of capabilities than what NATO can offer.
The draft constitution creates an enormous and unprecedented opportunity for Libyans to shape their future in ways that will mark a clean and decisive break with the past. Yet, truly democratic state-building after conflict is not without perils, and democracy is not a foregone conclusion at the end of any authoritarian regime.
Building democratic states is a complex and challenging task at the best of times. After violent conflict this task is additionally complicated by the fact that peace needs to be secured, institutions need to be comprehensively reformed, if not built from scratch, civil society and political culture need to be reinvigorated, and economies need to be put back on a path to sustainable growth.
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