Saudi Arabia is currently in the lead against Iran. Riyadh has consolidated allegiance from states with huge payouts and also strengthened the GCC. Though Saudi Arabia faces huge difficulties in Yemen, and uncertainty in Syria and Libya, Iran has failed to make any inroads in increasing its influence at Riyadh’s expense, except in Lebanon.
Much was made of the changes in Egypt’s foreign policy in April when the Egyptian foreign ministry announced it would begin the process of normalizing relations with Iran and Hamas. For the moment, Egypt’s foreign policy is trying to toe a middle line and become something new for a major Arab state in the region’s cold war: a non-aligned state.
Iran has outmaneuvered the United States in Iraq at every turn. It has done this through its tremendous foresight as to the direction Iraq was heading at different moments, as well as its keen understanding of its American adversary. These past successes have, in turn, given Iran the upper-hand vis-à-vis the United States as Washington and Tehran battle to define the future of Iraq.
This collection of articles offers insightful and diverse perspectives on the Arab uprisings, and expands to consider political unrest outside the Arab world.
Looking ahead there are two major concerns for Lebanon. Firstly, if a new government cannot kick start the ailing economy and publicly support the Lebanese people by providing much needed water and electricity projects, then Hezbollah’s influence will grow, as Iranian money will finance vital social programmes, as witnessed already in the south of the country.
The need to resort to strategic symbols like Mahdi is to some degree the result of the Persian cultural trait of ta’arof which discourages direct confrontation and criticism. Westerners, bewildered by such peculiarities, often fall back on what they know best, Iran’s foreign affairs, while overlooking the domestic aspects that fuel Iranian behavior.
The dictators, the old, the ridiculous, the venial in Iran are still telling the free, the young, the educated, the expectant how to live their lives. But the democratic awakening that began in Iran and has since reverberated across the middle east is alive, and with its eyes open. That is what really scares the elite.
It is possible that at some point in the next 15-18 months Israel’s policy-makers and military officials will need to decide whether or not to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. That would certainly be one of the most complicated decisions since the establishment of the State of Israel.
The Iranian Revolution of 1979 is considered a defining moment because the Islamic Republic replaced an authoritarian monarchy that was friendly to the West. The revolution, moreover, linked religion to politics in an unprecedented way. The books reviewed herein demonstrate that the idea of a “monolithic Islam” is not only wrong, it is dangerous.
Modern Iran represents one of the biggest waiting games of the world today. A beautiful, civilised, and hospitable country containing one of the nicer peoples on earth, and with a distinguished history to boast, has become one of the world’s most rejected nations ruled by those with standards and practices more suitable to the middle ages than the 21st Century.
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