The key to China’s future is a more balanced approach to growth, and a greater role for consumers in the economy. China can only go so far as a producer of low-end manufactured products for foreign markets.
Those wishing to understand the limitations of American power and how difficult the foreign policy-making process will be in an age of austerity should consult this first draft of history.
Merkel’s actions over the EU fiscal pact have been likened to a game of chicken. They are more akin to tightrope walking while composing an opera. Lurking in the background is the threat that the markets will lose faith and tear the whole edifice down. Either way, this pact will not be the last word.
While the western world is likely to turn inward as its middle-classes attempt to cope with the economic squeeze, the new middle-classes in the global south are less predictable and more likely to be a force for instability. The ability of governments in the global south to respond to the changing demands of their constituents and provide competent economic governance will profoundly influence the future, both domestically and globally.
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