How Putin and Medvedev react to the resurrection of civil society and the white revolution will determine the future pattern of political order in Russia
Traditionally perceived as continental powers, Russia and China are increasingly looking to invest significantly in the development of their maritime capabilities, most notably through the development and deployment of aircraft carriers. This reflects an aspiration broader than that of simply enhancing their respective naval strength.
A simple sentence could summarize almost a decade of negotiations, both political and economic, over a field that has not brought a single drop of oil to the surface: “No oil, plenty of ink”. The case of Kurmangazy, an oil field which lies about half way between the Russian and the Kazakh coasts, helps us understand the multidisciplinarity and the importance of the role of energy in foreign policy decision-making.
Putin will remain in power until 2024, barring assassination or revolution, and will become Russia’s longest ruling leader since Stalin. He is not known for his willingness to compromise or surrender Russia’s imperial gains, suggesting that a new time of troubles is looming on the horizon. This will indicate whether the West still sees Russia as a political part of Europe or has concluded that the country cannot be changed and the days of democratization have become a historical footnote.
This in-depth study into the complex and multi-faceted aspect of the role of oil and gas in Russian foreign policy goes beyond the headlines, taking the reader through the hydrocarbon fields, and into the backroom of energy contract negotiations between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan since 1991. It is recommended reading for all regional or country-experts and interested readers alike.
The recent visit of the Chief of the Chinese Army’s General Staff Chen Bingde to Russia underscored the two states willingness to maintain their military contacts despite Russia’s fears of the rapidly growing power of its Eastern neighbor. Both nations wish to preserve trust amidst competing interests. Suspicions on the Russian side will not go away and pose challenges to closer security ties.
Southeast Asia and the South China Sea are now clearly major theaters of rivalry between the US and China, and once again, a cockpit of major international rivalries. ASEAN’s members are squarely in the middle of this rivalry. Meanwhile Russia is trying to run a bluff on China, which will probably only provoke Chinese and Asian mistrust despite the mutual professions of an identity of interest with China.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia endured a difficult rebirth into a unipolar world order where it struggled to find a place. Dr. Nicolai Petro traces the journey the nation’s governments have made since this painful transition and looks to the continuing evolution of Russia’s diplomatic identity.
Turkish-Russian rapprochement should not be viewed by the West as a menace or even irritant, but rather the platform upon which regional knots of contention might find resolution. The regional political landscape of western Eurasia has shifted dramatically in the past decade; we in the West would do well to adjust our perceptions accordingly.
Western Europe’s alienation from its own Byzantine roots has done much to perpetuate Cold War divisions in people’s minds, long after they have disappeared from the political map. Ideological competition is not only unnecessary, it is a dead end. Envisioning an integral Europe that includes Russia has proved to be no easy task. It can be made somewhat easier, however, by regarding it as process of mutual rediscovery
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