While it might seem optimistic to think that a tool for forecasting genocide can break down the political calculations that so often seem to obstruct effective responses to genocide, it is surely a hope worth chasing.
Predicting the range of future challenges is no easy matter, but it is a necessary part of how military organizations prepare, invest in platforms and weapon systems, conduct training, and concentrate their forces.
The moral imperative to intervene in a nation’s internal affairs where acts of genocide are threatened is a powerful one. That the UN is eager to push the doctrine of R2P and to re-define sovereignty to permit intervention in a state’s internal affairs is testimony to the fact that the Charter does not provide that legal authority. It should.
Twenty years ago, the country known until then as Yugoslavia plunged into war. Over the next decade, a succession of armed conflicts on the territory of the “former Yugoslavia” would recurrently make headlines. The wars spelled the end not just of a multinational state, but of any prospect of a viable multinational society at a local level.
Recent developments in the South China Sea and China’s emphasis on the modernization of its military raise important issues for the future of U.S. strategic manoeuvring in the region. What can be done to sustain future U.S. presence in Asia while tactfully maintaining a favourable position for its interests and the stability in the region?
Neoconservatism’s approach of democratising the Middle East via military intervention, tempering terrorism in the area, and dealing with Iran decisively has already formed the core of Obama’s policy package, all continuations from the Bush administration.
The UN was neither designed nor expected to be a pacifist organisation. Its origins lie in the anti-Nazi wartime military alliance amongst Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union. The all-powerful UN Security Council is the world’s duly, and only, sworn in sheriff for enforcing international law and order.
The lay reader may be forgiven if geoengineering- the use of technology to manipulate the planetary climate system in order to forestall the worst effects of global warming- sounds like science fiction. The science of such interventions remains uncertain, but assessments are proliferating – and the implications for climate governance and policy could be huge.
The so called “Arab Spring” has been a popular notion in American media. US academics, journalists and politicians speak of the most recent Middle Eastern revolutionary movements as a single and similar wave of reform that they deem as one that could be defined along racial lines. Not only is this approach methodically flawed, but it also overrides a sense of remarkable national pride for individual nations.
While experts hold that North Korea’s stockpile is about deterrence, the public’s perception of an offensive posture could shape policy debates towards confrontational strategies.
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