The Ukraine crisis had contributed to the increase of support for Putin, but he will most likely fail to satisfy the aspirations of such a diverse group of supporters.
While Russia won the military war to create Novorossiya and intelligence war to support combat operations, it has not achieved its aims and is losing the political war.
The post-Cold War security architecture and the enlargement of NATO have played the main role in creating the conditions for and exacerbating the Ukraine crisis.
Ukraine’s geopolitical position, and the interventions of competing outside powers pursuing their own self-interest led to the continuing civil war in Ukraine.
The Ukraine crisis has fragmented the ‘national-democrat’ scene and has strengthened aspirations for the recreation of Soviet power and the Eurasian Union project.
The rise of authoritarianism, West-supported popular protests, NATO/EU enlargement, and Russia’s foreign policy are the main causes of the Ukraine crisis.
Ukrainian politics will remain a struggle between old- and new-style politics, although it remains to be seen how much of the old informal politics has changed.
The 2014 Euromaidan and the following conflict have reinforced negative attitudes to, and marginalisation of, Russians and the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.
While Crimea is likely to remain a point of conflict between Ukraine/the West and Russia, the return of the territory to the Ukrainian state is virtually impossible.
As the West struggles to formulate the next steps in response to the Ukraine crisis, it should also think about the possible development of separatism within Russia.
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